Plan Ahead with Causal Forecasting

The ability to plan in advance for promotional events and peak seasons is critical for many businesses (eg retail), and causal forecasting helps your company anticipate demand for these circumstances. Running a discount on certain items will typically affect demand, and unless the intent is a close out or clearance sale, you will want to plan for it with causal forecasting at least a lead time in advance so that you can have enough stock in place to satisfy the increased demand.

Thrive Events Module for Promotional Forecasting

Thrive’s Events module allows you to set up an event, identify which items will experience a ‘lift’ in demand, set the time frame for the event, and plan the lift. This will modify promotional forecasting appropriately so that the replenishment process automatically will order an increased amount for that event timeframe based on how much you have now.

Gather Critical Historical Data for Future Causal Forecasting

After the event has passed, the Events module will calculate the actual effect of the promotion and provide analytics so that if the same event is run again, you can apply this to the causal forecasting model to better gauge what the estimated lift will be.

You can also plan for cannibalization of comparable items which may see a decrease in sales during the promotional forecasting period due to customers switching to the discounted or promoted products. The Events module will also provide analysis after the event of any negative impact in sales which may have occurred to these similar items.