Firstcast is a cloud demand forecasting service focused on enterprise forecasting optimization for improving sales forecasting. Firstcast is proven to improve the baseline statistical forecast accuracy of ERP systems and advanced replenishment systems for large distribution and retail companies, resulting in improved replenishment buys and more profitable inventory levels.

Industry Leading Sales Forecasting Science

Firstcast is an enterprise sales forecasting optimization service that provides industry leading forecast accuracy. Our clients experience sales forecasting accuracy at 90 to 95% and higher at an aggregate level, with item level forecasts’ accuracy improving by 5 to 10 points on average. Firstcast’s superior accuracy is based on Thrive Technologies’ patent pending forecast engine that harnesses the latest state space forecasting methodologies.

Leveraging the virtually unlimited processing power available in the cloud, Firstcast runs through up to 480 forecasting model variations for each SKU at each stocking location and applies the model with the best forecast. Firstcast provides enterprise performance with the ability to process millions of item / locations within a weekend.

Cloud Demand Forecasting with Quick, EASY Implementation + Rapid ROI

Offered as a cloud demand forecasting service, Thrive can have Firstcast fully implemented and generating better forecasts for each of your SKU’s within 30 days. Once you are live, Firstcast generates a return on investment within 30 to 60 days. An auto parts distributor reduced its buyer overrides by 60% and decreased its overstock from 27% to 10% of total inventory valuation within 30 days of being live.

What makes the Firstcast implementation ‘painless’ is that your company’s current business processes will not change during or after implementation. Firstcast will simply feed the replenishment or ERP system you already have in place with more accurate baseline statistical forecasts for each SKU that you stock.

If you have forecast planners, they can review the statistical forecasts and use their existing processes to add any causal numbers like events or promotions, or to use them as input into the S&OP process. The replenishment buyers will continue to use their existing replenishment processes but the recommended orders will be based on more accurate sales forecasts, improving the performance and profitability of your inventory.

Sales Forecasting: Distribution and Retail Expertise

Statistical forecasting requires assumptions to be accurate in ‘real world’ conditions. These assumptions differ from industry to industry, and even between sub verticals. For example, demand behaves differently at the beginning or end of a product lifecycle for different industries. Variables like seasonal patterns, emphasis on latest demand, and range of variability are all different in different industries.

Using a sales forecasting engine that is marketed to all industries will not generate accurate forecasts if the generic settings are not optimized correctly. Distribution and retail companies that stock large numbers of items can see multiple percentage points of margin improvement from gains in forecast accuracy (that become the basis of inventory planning and replenishment buys) when spread across the whole spectrum of items managed.

Based on domain expertise gained from over ten years of working with many distribution and retail companies and the knowledge of many former inventory buyers and scientists from Georgia Institute of Technology, Firstcast is designed exclusively to generate accurate demand forecasts for finished goods in distribution and retail forecasting. As the premier cloud demand forecasting engine in the industry, there are many parameters used by our implementation consultants to generate the most accurate forecasts possible across your entire spectrum of stocked items.